March 2026 Market Quick Hit

• The US-Iranian conflict dominated market sentiment, sending stocks and bonds lower and volatility and oil higher.

• Oil drove the energy sector to strong returns for the month, while every other sector posted negative returns for the month.

• Spiking oil prices escalated inflation fears and brought doubt that the Federal Reserve would meet its expectation of cutting rates at least 2 times in 2026, leading treasury yields to rise and bond prices to fall during the month.

• Concerns about the Iranian conflict’s impact on energy and inflation weighed heavily on Europe and Asia, which are more dependent on oil and gas imports than the US. 

• Gold pared back its gains as a rising US dollar and investors’ need for liquidity led to selling despite gold being a traditional safe-haven asset.

Positioning & Outlook

• The Iranian war resolution is now the single biggest market catalyst. A relatively swift end to major combat will likely calm market fears, ease inflation concerns, and potentially allow the Fed to resume its rate-cutting trajectory. Extended conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz will likely continue to pressure markets, extend oil prices, and potentially usher in a global recession.

• The Federal Reserve’s path is murky with expectations turning from 2 rate cuts in 2026 to some calling for a rate hike to combat rising inflation caused by the oil supply disruption.

• Should the war persist and oil prices and inflation expectations remain high, expect continued pressure on equities and bond prices, particularly if the Fed signals a potential rate increase.

• AI spending continues to be a catalyst for GDP growth and a significant contributor to market optimism; however, concerns persist about the sustainability of capital expenditure and how and when it will translate into meaningful Return on Investment.

• We continue to recommend maintaining and expanding diversification within portfolios, tapping into uncorrelated markets such as commodities and private markets, where appropriate, to help dampen equity market volatility while maintaining attractive returns and income potential.

Advisory services are provided by Bison Wealth, LLC (“Bison”) an investment adviser registered with the SEC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and is based on the opinions of Bison and subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing herein should be deemed an offer or solicitation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. All investments contain risks to include the total loss of invested amounts. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not protect against losses.

Index Disclosure
An index typically measures the performance of a basket of securities intended to replicate a certain area of the market, asset class or geopolitical region among others. Indices do not represent investments in actual accounts. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The asset classes noted here reflect the following indices: “U.S. Large Cap” represented by the S&P 500 Index. “US Mid Cap “represented by the S&P 400 Index “U.S. Small Cap” represented by the S&P 600 Index. “International” represented by the MSCI Europe, Australasia, Far East (EAFE) Net Return Index. “Emerging” represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Net Return Index. “U.S. Aggregate” represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. “Treasuries” represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index. “Short Term Bond” represented by the Bloomberg 1-5 year gov/ credit Index. “U.S. High Yield” represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index. “Real Estate” represented by the Dow Jones REIT Index. “Gold” represented by the LBMA Gold Price Index. “Bitcoin” represented by the Bitcoin Galaxy Index.